2014 A Review
The Next Big Thing
- Sharing Economy based ideas / Peer to Peer Economy : Almost 70% of the business ideas submitted were on this space, were the focus was about sharing an additional resource which some one own. The business ideas try to help end provider earn money effectively using that resource by sharing and also provide value addition for the end customer. The main company that is building the infrastructural support for this system would pocket a considerable chunk of profit to themselves and by scaling across markets they would grow. The ideas proposed were around providing Car Rides, Errand work for people, Home cooked food , personal living space - houses / condos , or money for lending. All these were enabled with the help of technology , mostly an App or a website which is social. So the leading startups in this space – Airbnb ( For shared house or vacation rentals) , Uber/Lyft ( Car Rides) , Task Rabbit (Errands) , EatWith ( For food or sharing the dining experience). But for Peer to Peer lending there is yet to be a leader in the space as of now, but Facebook tried building this part of the messenger app and we are yet to see breakthrough in that. This is one space to watch as the new generation tries to rely more on a sharing economy than owning economy we were in. In the previous generation ownership value was very high and with the new trend it is going down and this space would see some successful startups in the coming years.
- Education based ideas : This is one industry ripe for disruption. It is also an industry and mostly run for profit except the one which is government run. Rest of them in majority are run for profit. There were about 20% of ideas in this area around - E-learning, e-certificate management, online tutor-student matching, predictive analytics to improve student performance, alumni management, learning infrastructure like email, shared space for files etc. There have been many companies trying to disrupt this space especially breaking the university system– Massive open online courses by Coursera , Udacity and edX are some recent developments in the last few years. There are also some good open source learning management system like Moodle and the big companies like Google, Microsoft all are trying with their own products like Google Helpouts and their productivity apps customized for education sector. But yet this is one place yet to be really explored for breakthrough. Even Coursera like MOOC made the content available to the masses, the dropout rate is pretty high with the number of people who actually complete the course is low vs registering for a course. The learning outcome is yet to be measured. Also how will this really impact in people’s life for better jobs, or better productivity etc. are yet to be measured successfully.
- Agriculture based ideas : This is a big market and definitely needs to be enabled further with technology. In India, there was not high PC penetration, but now there is internet penetration with the help of smart phones. There were couple of good ideas with smartphone / feature phone based ideas to help the farmers and also some crowdsourcing ideas around this. Especially helping farmers to arrive at pricing in a crowd sourced way rather than relying on middle men and may be the commodity exchanges. I have not really researched on the startups in this area, but an interesting space to watch.
The next phase in life
My constant questions and search
I have been writing in this blog since 2006.That is when I left my home town where I grew up, to live on my own. The year I really started to earn money regularly . Though I did not really earn a lot of money, but it did teach me the importance and value of money. Probably my money blue print was forming more at this period of my life. I landed in Mumbai- and it was adventure to survive – searching for a house with torrential rain, no clue of the place and did not have some one to help, with broken Hindi speaking skill , survival instincts really kicked in me for the first time .
I started to write to improve my own thinking and writing skills. I have captured varied things in this blog as my thoughts over the last 9 years.You would see in the last 9 years I wrote on very different things. I wrote on Oracle when I was working on that, I wrote on English phrases when I was preparing for competitive exams, my experience in XLRI when I was really slogging to really cope up in the first year, even my own experiences when I was clueless on what to do next.
But After 9 years of moving from different places, professions and jobs there is always a question I had – are all these decisions I made were so well planned ? – the answer is a resounding no. Life has been so unpredictable with many twists. So whenever I get the question on how deliberate have I designed my life – I have mostly rationalized the situations and decisions post facto.
These introspections never stopped and coincidentally last week I was reading Prof.Sanjay Bakshi’s personal narration of his life, I landed on the below quote by Herb Simon in that article.
I have encountered many branches in the maze of life's path, where I have followed now the left fork, now the right. . . .In describing my life as mazelike, I do not mean that I have a large number of deliberate, wrenching decisions to go off in one direction or another. On the contrary, I have made very few. Obvious responses to opportunities and circumstances, rather than studied decisions, have put me on the particular roads I have followed - Herb Simon
It cant be more relevant than this one. Most of the decisions I have made as well not so deliberate but obvious responses to opportunities and circumstances. So these reflections now made me more curious about life and looking forward to the next experience that is going to happen. Staying realistic and curious!!
Enough philosophy for today, and got to pack my bags for my India visit after 13 months. This is the longest I have stayed away from my country and excited to be there next week.
HR analytics
I have been in HR function for the last 5 years, and I have never published any post related to HR ever in this blog. Even this was an observation from one of my friend. With Linkedin’s new Pulse platform for article writing, I posted an article which I have been thinking about for a while now. Here is the article from Linkedin pulse page.
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/article/20140904010159-28286378-hr-analytics-what-we-really-do
Here is the article from Linkedin I published,
There was a famous analogy on Big data by Dan Ariely that went on rage - Big data is like Teenage sex everyone talks about it, nobody really knows how to do it, everyone thinks everyone else is doing it, so everyone claims they are doing it. I think the analogy can be extrapolated to HR Analytics. With the growth of digitized data there is an explosion of Talent data and every body is talking about HR Analytics / HR Big data in most places I have seen. But there are only in very few places I have seen they really convert those analytics work into meaningful insights that had some real impact on the business.
I look at this analytics stack at three layers
- Data Aggregation and quality management - This is hygiene factor that ensures we are able to get all the various HR data points and we pull the right quality data for our work
- Data analysis and visualization - This step is churning the data on various statistical (or even simple) analysis and visualize them in graphs, tables, dashboards etc.
- Drawing Insights - This is the step we look at the data and pull various insights by adding other contextual and anecdotal information we have about the business. These insights convert to actions for our business.
In what I am observing most of the places we are doing a great job in the top 2 layers - Aggregating quality data and do a deeper analysis also. We even visualize with fancy dashboards these days with Power BI and other cool data visualization tools available now. But when it comes to Insights , I see most of the report outs are trends which can be any way seen by visualizing. We really don't pull out insights which are actionable for business. Because we really don't add context to the data and present as insights most of the time.
In the places I have observed, we are missing some of the basics done in research methodology. In research methodology the researcher will do some exploratory research to come up with a Hypothesis. Then he does all the survey etc to do data collection then does the analysis to validate the hypothesis. But in our situation we really don't start with some hypothesis to do analysis. Rather we do regular churn of data on try to get some insights. In any company there is no shortage of metrics and dashboards anyway.
So we should start focusing with Step 3 - on identifying the real business problems we are trying to solve and formulate few hypothesis based on the anecdotal data we have. Here the contextual data is not just HR data - it is about the business related information we have as well. Once you have the hypothesis validate them through various analytics work. Like any research problems if we form say 10-20 hypothesis we may be able to validate say 1 or 2 hypothesis that is actionable intelligence for business.
Instead of starting with HR Analytics work as a project - we should start calling as data driven HR where we validate various intuitions and heuristics we have already by using the talent and business data analysis. Then business would really see value when we give actionable insights and also an ROI on our investments in data analytics.
(Image Credit : http://businessintelligence.com/)
Into the new world of Open water swimming
The day I survived 202 miles cycling - STP, 2014
Update : The story was published in Isha Foundation blog as well on August 15th. Here is the link to the Page : A 200-mile Journey for Education - Cycling for Isha Vidhya from Seattle to Portland.
Basic financial literacy–Ignorantia juris non excusat
Support me to educate a Child, As I cycle for STP, 2014 (Seattle to Portland)
Patience–What is it?
Read this quote by legendary cricketer Rahul Dravid , he definitely is legendary according to me compared to many other popular players, who stood for the team and with held pain longer. Life is a Marathon and it is not a sprint, and patience is must. Below is the quote,
Rahul Dravid on “Patience”
“When I’m requested to speak to youngsters I like talking about this phase of my life and liken it to fascinating plant: The Chinese Bamboo. You can take a Chinese bamboo seed and plant it in the ground, water and nurture the seed for an entire year & not even see a single sprout. Infact, you’ll not see a sprout for 5 years. But suddenly, a tiny shoot will spring from the ground. And over the next 6 weeks, the plant can grow as tall as 90 feet. It can grow as fast as 39 inches every 24 hours. You can literally watch the plant grow.
What was the plant doing during these 5 years, seemingly dormant period, it was growing its roots. For 5 full years it was preparing itself for rapid, full growth. Without this root structure, the plant simply couldn’t support itself for its future growth. Some would say the plant grew 90 feet in 6 weeks, I would say it grew 90 feet in 5 years & 6 weeks”
The last line applies in many areas of life. I would tie this back to couple of my passionate areas.
- Personal Finance – Being frugal and continue to invest regularly and start early in a systematic way( or they call it SIP) month on month, day by day. Penny saved is penny earned. Patience has its own fruit and building the big retirement corpus is not that tough than managing that corpus in your post retirement phase.
- Fitness – In an era of instant gratification, you need to painfully with hold yourself from many distraction to continue to eat right and keep fit.
Only Rahul Dravid can say these lines, because he actually lived by these words in his career on the cricket field.
4 Tools to become a Productivity Ninja at Work
- What was productivity level today compared to the previous day ( Did I level up/ down / same) ?
- How satisfied I was at my own work and what would I do differently the next day?
- Multitasking – doing too many tasks at the same time which result in lower quality of work across.
- Switching – In snail mail days, we know when a post would arrive everyday and it was easier to check for posts only during that time of the day. But with emails, social feeds there is flurry of info all the time ( though most of them are junk), I have started to check emails / messages too often. This is like another addiction. This goes with Skinner’s operant conditioning experiments with rats – where he found rats work much harder when the rewards are unpredictable. With the new medium of email / social feed, we tend to expect some juicy gossip / information( reward) and tend to check again and again. It is like posting a status update, and checking facebook often to see how many people like it or commented on it. But the because time killer in addition to checking these often is Switching cost. When I switch from work to something like emails / social feed, I lose context on what I am working and it takes about 5-10 minutes to gain that context again on the work I have been doing. This was pulling my productivity even more.
- Prioritization– this is like trying to hit every day work inside outlook/ mail box. When we get a email I start working on that without prioritizing on a checklist or a sense of direction.
- Make lists, no war : Workflowy – This is the only one open in my browser all the time across devices. My phone / laptop browser. This is a very effective tool to make checklists, track them and also organize your own project with its zoom-in and zoom out function. I have my personal tasks / work tasks. This has a simple design and a web based tool, with a cool interactive design. For tracking tasks/ checklist – this is a great tool for you to give a try.
- Get yourself Cold Turkey during office hours. This is a simple background program that runs to block my distractions – like Facebook, personal email , news feeds etc. You can choose the websites to block and the hours you want to block in a day in advance. Once it is set, you cant go and stop it unless you uninstall that program. On my core hours I have moved away from using all those distracting sites and have at least saved me from switching cost. ( I did not switch to doing anything else in the last 30 minutes I took to write to this post as well :)
- Just get F.lux - The nature of work nowadays is more and more in front of a computer and you are watching direct light everyday. This excites my eyes before sleeping, and it took a considerable amount of time to fall asleep even if go to bed. To avoid this,use flux – which is a free software that warms up your computer display at night, to match your indoor lighting and also it matches with the sunrise and sunset timings. You can disable selectively if you are doing some color sensitive work sometimes. It did improve my sleep pattern.
- One Note – Not to mention , this is one app I use a lot across my phone / laptop for taking notes on anything I want , even like grocery list, map / address to some place, and notes of any meetings. You can organize them well like notebooks, sections and papers. You can search notes across notebooks, as I read I snip some info to one note, even print some info directly to one note and access across devices.
Biking and beyond..
What do you mean by A/B Testing
I have been hearing this term A/B testing at work often and was curious to learn what it is, how it is different with our Controlled experiments in social sciences. A/B testing is simply put – testing simultaneously two versions of a product – version A & version B with user group to identify which is the most effective version. This is popular recently with the internet explosion, people are trying to use A/B testing to identify how their online, web presence should be designed.
A simple example for this is – take the case of designing an experiment where I am designing how many steps are involved in selecting a product in cart to final checkout stage. We can create two versions – Version A with 2 screen series, Version B with 3 screen series but there is a choice of selecting some related products to cart during payment. So here we would test - which version converts visitors to buying the products or increasing the items they finally end up buying more number of products in the site. So you are testing the two versions simultaneously and not one after the other, with different user groups and evaluate which version helps in reaching your goal.
This area is getting more popular with website optimization where you get live feedback loop from users behaviors to better improve your site and achieve your targeted goals. I find this fascinating, because most of the conventional wisdom we have when we design a product will get quashed when we have real user behavior data. So when we do A/B testing we need to reject our default judgments and look for intuitive or sometime non-intuitive info on the behavior data. That is when we leverage the power of experiments.
To understand the power of experiments, in one of the recent courses (MOOC) I am in , read about the power of experiments on a simple case of Organ donation. If we look at the chart of people who have voluntarily signed up for organ donation there is a wide spectrum from as low in the 20% to high in the 90%+. The conventional reason we would jump to is the awareness level of the program, marketing, availability of the program etc. But by experiments, if you look at the final result, it gives a totally different reason unexpected. The way the form is designed changes this a lot. Yes, if it is an opt in form, people tend to ignore this, but if it is opt-out version where you check only if you do not want to sign up for the organ donation - most people chose not to check that. So we tend to take the path of least resistance. This is an example result from experimentation. I am sure A/B testing is becoming more and more popular with top online companies now like Amazon, Google,Bing, Facebook .
You can read more about the suggested pricing scenarios where we behave differently for A/B Testing in this article. This is getting more fascinating as we get in to choice modeling and choice architecture.
Crowdsourcing
Crowdsourcing is getting more and more traction with the penetration of internet, as we have more and more people staying connected. There is now a plenty of ideas mushrooming focusing on this. I had already posted sometime back “How to make money money by doing small errands – Service Networking”. With services like Task Rabbit, Amazon’s Mechanical or M-Turk or click worker people can use their expertise to help other people across the world. With the same intention Google has also launched a new service called Helpout which leverages its hangout platform. I am not sure how Google is going to scale this, but the intent of the service is focusing on Google’s mantra of know everything in the world through Google services and platform. So in Helpout, you get real help from real people. They screen folks, before making them helpers in their Helpout platform.
This crowd sourcing is an area, slowly getting crowded, as big players like Amazon, Google getting into this space. There are many areas which could leverage this Crowdsourcing platform. More to come, as I research this area.